STUART WATSON has been investing in investment trusts for 25 years and contributes regular in-depth fund profiles to the Money Makers subscription service. Here he explains what he looks for when researching new holdings.
Investment trusts have been the mainstay of my portfolio for much of my time in finance. A few years ago, as semi-retirement loomed, I decided I wanted to learn a lot more, both about the trusts I already held and about the sector as a whole.
They say one of the best ways to learn about something is to write about it. So that was what I did, setting up a blog called itinvestor.co.uk to publish a new piece every week.
My early blog posts were a little simplistic, but they got much longer and more detailed as the months passed, and I built up a broader understanding of the sector.
I started using a template to give my articles a more consistent framework. Then the opportunity arose to join Jonathan Davis at Money Makers, and I now write weekly fund profiles for the Money Makers website (money-makers.co). Here I am going to break down the template I use, to provide a little colour around what I look at in these profiles and why.
What I look for in a trust
My preferred investing style is a mixture of a little caution, a lot of stubbornness, and a side helping of lethargy.
I am comfortable with some risk, but I don’t feel the need to significantly beat the market every year. I am happy to give managers time to work through what appear to be temporary issues, such as their style dipping out of favour for a while. I prefer trusts that I can hold for several years without worrying that they will significantly change their underlying strategy. As one of my former work colleagues was fond of saying, “Don’t change horses mid-stream.”
The fund profiles are written with this philosophy in mind, so I tend to avoid short-term discount plays and generally steer clear of both regional and country-specific trusts, preferring to concentrate on a few big themes and global equity trusts.
A little bit of history
An investment trust has the ability to completely reinvent the way it does business, getting rid of its managers and totally changing its investment focus. In some instances, this means a trust’s history may have little if anything to do with its prospects today. Other trusts have had the same manager and broadly the same investment style for many decades.
Therefore, the first step I take is to see what a trust has done in the past and consider how far back you can meaningfully go when looking at its track record.
I look for manager changes, at both individual and firm levels, and also for major strategy or benchmark changes. That said, older reports rarely mention individual managers by name – often the first time you come across them is when they retire and are thanked for their service!
Most investing websites only have data that goes back ten years, but a trust’s own website often has accounts dating back to the early 2000s. Looking at old ten-year summaries can pretty quickly give you a three-decade overview of how a trust has performed. How the presentation of key data has changed over time can be revealing as well. I prefer trusts that have consistently used the same metrics over a long period.
Companies House is another great resource and often has accounts going back to the mid-1970s, although the quality of the photocopying becomes ever more suspect the further back you go.
Sometimes a trust’s history will surprise you. For example, looking at Scottish Mortgage reveals how little of its portfolio was in technology stocks before the financial crisis, even though James Anderson first took charge in 2000, several years before sub-prime mortgages wrecked the banking system. Indeed, many trusts that you would instinctively think of as being widely globally diversified today were heavily UK-focused until quite recently.
In truth, it would be nice if I didn’t have to dig through old reports to get a lot of this information. It seems like the sort of thing that should be set out clearly on a trust’s website or in its accounts.
Key statistics
Once a trust has been properly introduced, I like to summarise a few key numbers.
A lot of this information is widely available, but it’s handy to skim down items like price, size, discount, sector, performance, benchmark, managers, number of holdings, charging structure and so on in one swoop. Quite often I find this process highlights some of the areas I want to examine in greater depth.
Investment policies
Each trust will have a set of guidelines on what it can invest in, usually specifying maximum amounts for certain types of holding and position sizes. I check these against what the trust is actually invested in, to see whether it is bumping up against these limits or whether they seem to have little relevance in practice. Looking back at how this has changed over time can also be revealing.
ESG policies are becoming increasingly common, although they tend not to be something I focus on explicitly. The trusts I prefer often fall into the quality camp, so by default, their investments tend to be more sustainable businesses.
Inside the portfolio
I like to get a feel for what I am invested in at the company level, although I rarely delve into lots of detail on individual positions as that tends to be very time-consuming. Rather, I am looking for obvious red flags, a feel for the overall level of diversification across sectors and geographies, and the types of companies held. No investor gets everything right, so I don’t feel the need to agree with every single position a manager has taken. With specialist trusts, it can be hard to get much information about the underlying holdings anyway.
I prefer more concentrated portfolios of, say, fewer than 30 positions as I believe that provides more opportunity to outperform. But individual positions greater than 10% can make me a little twitchy, especially when they represent a significant proportion of that particular company’s issued share capital, potentially making them more difficult to sell.
Looking at a trust’s portfolio can also tell me how much it overlaps with trusts I already own. There are significant shared holdings across many Baillie Gifford trusts, for example. I try to keep my portfolio below 20 trusts, to keep things more manageable, so I often avoid trusts that duplicate a lot of what I already have.
Portfolio turnover is something else I like to examine, and lower is generally better in my opinion. Sometimes a manager will provide commentary on this, and sometimes you need to look at the cash flow statement and compare the amounts bought and sold relative to the size of the trust’s assets.
Paid-for broker notes from the likes of Edison, Kepler and QuotedData can be useful sources of information, as they often go into detail about how managers construct their portfolios and size their positions, which is something often not discussed in their reports and presentations.
Another useful source of information, especially for newer trusts, is a prospectus for an IPO or a recent placing. These can run to a few hundred pages, but there is usually a chapter or two covering the market opportunity and investing strategy and these often provide a lot more background detail than you see in a set of accounts.
Finally, the tone of how a manager talks about their holdings and performance can also be revealing. I prefer the modest and understated approach, owning up to bad decisions but not getting too carried away when times are good.
Performance
Assessing a trust’s performance is a dark art, at best. Changes to a management team or strategy may mean there is only a limited period you can look back through and still make a sensible comparison. And the further back you go, the harder it is to get good-quality information.
I like to look for consistency of outperformance, preferring my trusts to be frequently good rather than occasionally great. That suits my hands-off investing style and should make a trust easier to hold onto when the markets hit a rough patch.
One thing I am a fan of is how some J.P. Morgan trusts break their performance for each period down into factors like stock selection, currency, gearing and charges. It would be good to see this approach more widely adopted.
Each trust has a different objective, though, and it is important to compare its performance against a sensible yardstick. Sometimes a trust’s stated benchmark seems completely inappropriate. HgCapital Trust, a tech-focused private equity trust that I have held for many years, still compares itself against the FTSE All-Share, one of the major indices with the least amount of technology exposure. For many years up until March 2020, Murray International used a mixed benchmark with a 40% weighting to UK stocks although its typical UK weighting was a fraction of that.
It is worth comparing a trust against others in its sector, although even within a sector there can be a number of different styles. The flexible sector is probably the most diverse in this respect. Typically, the more trusts there are in a sector, the more it will make sense to cherry-pick from the most similar trusts. With many of the newer alternative asset trusts, the income and total return expectations outlined in their IPO prospectus make another useful comparator.
I also like to see how trusts perform when markets go through big declines, like the financial crisis, the last quarter of 2018 and the first quarter of 2020. This can give a sense of how defensive they might be when the next bear comes along.
Directors and managers
I am probably more interested in a trust’s managers than in its directors, but I do like to see a board that has a good mixture of industry and investment trust experience. The length of service and how many other directorships they hold can also be revealing. You want to be comfortable that they are not too cosy with the managers and can devote sufficient time to the trust.
I do look at how many shares the directors hold, but it’s hard to know how meaningful any position is with respect to any individual’s net worth. Often directors will buy shares over time, so those who recently joined may have much smaller positions.
While I like to see alignment with shareholders, I have grown warier of very large stakes held by key individuals as that may give them a bit too much control and lead to persistent large discounts.
I consider the stakes held by a trust’s managers to be more important, although reporting this is voluntary and, disappointingly, many trusts do not mention it at all.
Another piece of information you often have to dig around for is how old the managers are, so you can estimate how close they may be to retirement. What other funds they manage and how large a trust is relative to the management firm’s overall assets under management can also give a sense of where the trust might sit in their list of priorities.
Succession is an issue I have been looking at more and more, and I like to see a clear indication that there is a team behind the main man or woman and that a suitable deputy can step in if needed. Firms like Baillie Gifford seem particularly good at smooth transitions from one manager to the next, but at smaller investment houses it is often unclear how deep their bench is. This is another area where I feel some standardised disclosure would be helpful.
Discount control and rating
Some trusts are very keen to minimise their discount or premium and have a clear discount policy control, while others show little if any interest in the subject. It is useful to know where a trust sits on this spectrum.
For smaller trusts on a discount, there is often little they can do – as reducing the size of the trust via buybacks or tender offers may make it less attractive to investors and worsen the problem. Other trusts, like Lindsell Train Investment Trust, have structural issues that make it unfeasible to buy back or issue shares.
Regardless of what a trust says it aims to do, it can be instructive to look at how its discount has moved over time and how regularly it is either bought back or has issued new shares. Comparing a trust’s current discount to others in the sector can give an idea of how well it is perceived by other investors, although it can be difficult to get historical comparisons for this.
It is rare to find a trust that has not been on sale at some point, so getting a feel for how its rating has moved over time can be helpful if you want to build up a position gradually and snap up a bargain while doing so.
Furthermore, the rise of alternative asset trusts has meant we are seeing an increasing proportion of trusts that are valued on only a quarterly or semi-annual basis. Some hybrid trusts include a mixture of quoted and unquoted investments, with the former valued daily and the latter much more infrequently. Understanding the valuation cycle helps get a better feel for how valid the latest stated net asset value actually is.
Charges
Charges vary a lot between trusts. There are flat percentage fees, tiered fees, fees on total assets, fees on net assets, fees on market value – and then the hornets’ nest of performance fees. Before writing about trusts on a regular basis, I would have said I was fairly indifferent to performance fees, but I have definitely cooled towards them in recent years.
In some cases, performance fees can massively outweigh the basic fee, and it is rarely clear exactly how they have been calculated, where the high-water marks are, and exactly how much has been paid out over the long term. You never see a simple table explaining what is due, merely being presented with the total amount.
Some performance fees are as low as 10%, while others are 15% or even 20%. The hurdle to be jumped is often the trust’s benchmark index, but sometimes it is a relatively low fixed amount that is very easy to beat.
In terms of the basic management fee, I like to see if the rate charged has moved lower over time or if tiers have been introduced so that the average rate falls as the trust grows in size. Tiered fees are particularly important in the case of alternative asset trusts, given how they seem to grow so quickly in size. The concern with flat fees is that managers have a much greater incentive to hoard more and more assets rather than focusing on the quality of what they are buying.
Dividends
I am more in the total return camp when it comes to investment returns. However, it is still handy to look at the dividend track record and to get an understanding of whether a trust only pays out from the income it receives or whether it is regularly dipping into capital. We have also seen an increasing number of trusts adopt so-called enhanced dividend policies where a fixed percentage of net assets is paid out each year.
When it comes to trusts with an income focus, it is good to see that any dividend targets laid out are consistently met and are increased over time as you would expect.
Gearing
Gearing is another area where investors could do with a little more clarity. It is easy to find the current level of gearing, but not so simple to get data on historical movements.
I also find it useful to consider gearing and performance together. A more highly geared trust should, over longer periods, do better than a more lightly geared one.
Of course, in times of market stress, highly geared trusts are likely to see their net asset values fall more sharply.
Closing thoughts
The way I look at trusts has changed quite a lot in the last few years, and I suspect it will continue to evolve. That is a key reason why I like producing these profiles.
There is always something new to learn about the sector and, if anything, the rate of change seems to be accelerating, with the wide variety of new trusts we have seen in recent years including areas as diverse as music royalties and space exploration.
This article first appeared in The Investment Trusts Handbook 2022.