Technical update The first big test of the bear market rally looks to have arrived. Despite the recent "golden cross" signal that I mentioned a little while ago, the chart of the S and P 500 index has retraced its steps all the way back down through the 200-day moving average and although it now looks a little oversold, we can only wait to see if it can find fresh support around that level. Don't bank on it, given this week's dramatic events.
The problems of Silicon Valley Bank, the Californian bank which has been taken over by regulators after failing to raise new equity to shore up its bala...
This is a premium article for our subscribers.
Please log in below to read it, or find out how to join the Money Makers Circle.
Commodities for the long run? The latest Global Investment Returns Yearbook from the London Business School academics Dimson, Marsh and Staunton, out this week, has some important insights into the behaviour of commodities as an asset class, which, they point out, have some potentially invaluable diversification and inflation-hedging properties. Here are some of their conclusions on this topic, based on their extensive historical data set which stretches back to the nineteenth century:
Individual physical/spot commodities have provided low long-run returns since 1900 with an average annuali...
This is a premium article for our subscribers.
Please log in below to read it, or find out how to join the Money Makers Circle.
I continue to try and process what is going on in the markets, which are behaving very strangely but now, I suspect, approaching another potential turning point. The disparity between normally reliable leading indicators and what the markets are doing remains very wide. The former clearly points to a recession, while implicit in current market prices is the assumption that inflation will return to its 2% target more quickly than was thought, leading to central bank interest rate cuts later this year. Meanwhile corporate earnings are starting to weaken. There is no doubt that the economic dat...
This is a premium article for our subscribers.
Please log in below to read it, or find out how to join the Money Makers Circle.
The markets' positive start to the year resumed last week, with the S&P 500 index finally succeeding this week in breaching its 200-day moving average, which other important indices have also done, although the technical signal in the case of the US market still needs to be confirmed. This next interest rate decision from the Federal Reserve will provide just such an imminent test. Discipline therefore forces me to consider the possibility that my thesis could be wrong and the outlook for equities has improved markedly. Stuart's latest profile meanwhile is of the newcomer Foresight Sustai...
This is a premium article for our subscribers.
Please log in below to read it, or find out how to join the Money Makers Circle.
The markets' positive start to the year paused this week, with the S&P 500 index failing (again) to breach its 200-day moving average, and finishing flat over the week, while the UK equity market was modestly down. The videos outlining my recent changes to the Money Makers portfolios will be out shortly. Stuart's latest profile is of the Oakley Capital Investments trust (ticker: OCI), a private equity trust that I like and trades at a narrower discount than some of its larger, better known peers.
Other media this week You can hear an interview with me on Kyle Caldwell's weekly podcast f...
This is a premium article for our subscribers.
Please log in below to read it, or find out how to join the Money Makers Circle.
The markets have continued their positive start to the year, with some potentially important technical moves as well that are giving me pause for thought. I have completed the makeover of the Money Makers portfolios that I put in place at the end of last year and will be explaining those in my next set of videos, out shortly. Stuart's latest profile is of the SDCL Energy Efficiency investment trust (ticker: SEIT).
2022 in hindsight Track records and historical precedents in investment are good servants but poor masters, not least because of the need for context and perspective. Here for exa...
This is a premium article for our subscribers.
Please log in below to read it, or find out how to join the Money Makers Circle.
It is good to report that the markets have made a positive start to the year, with both equity and bond markets making gains in the first week of the year, boosted by a positive jobs market data release in the United States. This week I have recorded a video looking at the leaders and laggards of the past year (link below). I will be following that up with a series of videos about the Money Makers portfolios. Stuart's latest profile is of the Monks investment trust (ticker:MNKS).
2022 in hindsight The table of leaders and laggards I talk to in the video this week does not make for happy read...
This is a premium article for our subscribers.
Please log in below to read it, or find out how to join the Money Makers Circle.
My end of year thoughts are quite short. One reason is that by the nature of my involvement in the markets my thinking does not change suddenly at the end of a calendar year, but evolves slowly as time goes by (so you have already heard most of what I think already). A second reason is that I have long eschewed making predictions for the year ahead, since most such exercises often turn out to be worse than unhelpful, as a 12 month time frame is essentially both unpredictable and arbitrary. Most investors sensibly have a longer time horizon and while it makes sense to review your portfolio at r...
This is a premium article for our subscribers.
Please log in below to read it, or find out how to join the Money Makers Circle.
I have kept a link to my video about what the charts are suggesting in case you missed it last week. I have also included a brief summary of some of the interesting features in the latest Investment Trusts Handbook, which I am happy to say has got off to a good start, with more sales and downloads in the ten days since publication than in any previous year. Many thanks to you if you have been one of them. I have also been interviewed a number of times in the last few days about the Handbook and my reasons for choosing investment trusts. Here is a link to one of them. Because of the Christmas h...
This is a premium article for our subscribers.
Please log in below to read it, or find out how to join the Money Makers Circle.
These are my latest thoughts this week (NB I have updated these notes on 6th December to include the latest Home REIT developments). After a period of experimentation I have put together a rota of speakers for the next few weeks of the podcast. Alastair Laing of Capital Gearing Trust will be on next week's podcast, followed by Nick Greenwood and Peter Hewitt the following two weeks. Ewen Lovett-Turner will be back early in the New Year, and I will also be returning to some popular commentators on the alternative asset sectors. We will also be continuing with longer Q and As for the Money Mak...
This is a premium article for our subscribers.
Please log in below to read it, or find out how to join the Money Makers Circle.
© 2026 Money Makers