Commodities for the long run? The latest Global Investment Returns Yearbook from the London Business School academics Dimson, Marsh and Staunton, out this week, has some important insights into the behaviour of commodities as an asset class, which, they point out, have some potentially invaluable diversification and inflation-hedging properties. Here are some of their conclusions on this topic, based on their extensive historical data set which stretches back to the nineteenth century:
Individual physical/spot commodities have provided low long-run returns since 1900 with an average annuali...
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I continue to try and process what is going on in the markets, which are behaving very strangely but now, I suspect, approaching another potential turning point. The disparity between normally reliable leading indicators and what the markets are doing remains very wide. The former clearly points to a recession, while implicit in current market prices is the assumption that inflation will return to its 2% target more quickly than was thought, leading to central bank interest rate cuts later this year. Meanwhile corporate earnings are starting to weaken. There is no doubt that the economic dat...
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